Hate facts about COVID, masks, vaccinations, lockdowns, and economies
*updated 10/09/2021
At the beginning of the COVID pandemic, people and their governments were quick to advance different tactics with how to deal with the new unknown. Lockdowns and masks, and when they came available vaccines were each ways to get life back to ‘normal.’ In dealing with a new health scare, people erred on the side of caution, reacting first. How much was known, how much have we learned, and how well are we doing with respect to any of it?
What is COVID?
The current point of concern is specifically COVID-19 the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus itself. SARS stands for ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome.’ COVID-19 is new, but we know SARS-CoV-2 is a virus and respiratory infection. Similar viruses can form a base to understand SARS-CoV-2 (Romano, Ruggiero, Squeglia, Maga, & Berisio, 2020). SARS-CoV-2 was first officially seen in December 2019. SARS-CoV-2 is a Coronavirus, and they have been known to infect humans since the 1960s (Kahn & McIntosh, 2005).
Masks:
Other respiratory infections and their potential for reduction of transmissibility have been studied. The N95 mask is considered among the best at stopping transmission of airborne infections. Some masks in controlled environments, such as N95 masks worn by healthcare workers in hospitals can greatly reduce the transmission of infections in those environments, but other types of masks such as cloth or cotton are much less efficacious; all masks, including N95s, could lead to self-contamination if not properly treated and disposed (Chughtai, Stelzer-Braid, Rawlinson, et al, 2019; Offeddu, Yung, Low, & Tam, 2017). Those studies were in hospital/clinical settings with known sick/infectious people about. In test groups with masks versus no masks, there was no significant difference with transmission in home environments, though higher compliance did increase effectiveness of masks with some infection types (MacIntyre, Dwyer, Seale, et al, 2008). Ultimately, masks are not equal and may support reduced transmission of some infections in more controlled environments with airborne viruses, but are not as effective in community settings (Chou, Dana, Jungauer, Weeks, & McDonagh, 2020; Liao, et al, 2021).
Vaccinations:
Prior to COVID, the fastest a vaccine was created took four years; previous experience (research and formed organizations) as well as communication with others who worked on different aspects, in addition to parallel development helped speed the COVID vaccine along in a way such research could not be done before (Ball, 2020; Cassata, 2020). The COVID vaccine is now the fastest-created vaccine, and has existed for a short time after being rushed within its scientific confines. There are a couple issues with respect to its creation, including its speed and age: 1) it was not created to address a static entity; 2) medium- and long-term effects are impossible to verify.
From the outset of COVID, there were calls about the importance of vaccines to stop the spread. A sterilizing immunity was the hope. “Vaccines are now authorized to prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19” (Sauer, 2021). However, COVID vaccines do not have a sterilizing immunity. All viruses evolve. RNA viruses change faster than DNA viruses (Duffy, 2018; Peck & Lauring, 2018). SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus (Cascella, Rajnik, Aleem, Duleohn, & Di Napoli, 2021; Romano, Ruggiero, Squeglia, Maga, & Berisio, 2020). There are already four variants of concern, with six other variants of interest for SARS-CoV-2 (Cascella, Rajnik, Aleem, Duleohn, & Di Napoli, 2021). The virus already mutated with existing vaccines having varying and decreasing rates of effectiveness of transmission reduction against the old and new strains (Matta, Rajpal, Chopra, & Arora, 2021).
Dependent upon context, the reduced transmission can be as low 40% or up to 78% of infection spread (Mallapatya, 2021). Time decreases the transmission reduction effect. Even with a decreasing reduction in transmission rates, those who were vaccinated against COVID had up to 100% reduction of deaths and 83.7% reduction in requiring hospitalizations from the disease (Reuters, 2021; Reuters & Simões, 2021). COVID vaccines have little to do with stopping the spread of infection, rather they are about intentional, controlled infection to lessen the potential for severe COVID sickness. “Vaccinated people can still become infected and spread the virus to others” (CDCf, 2021). This was made glaringly obvious in Barnstable County, Massachusetts where Brown, et al. (2021) wrote for the CDC of an outbreak of 469 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections; 74% of the infected (346) were fully vaccinated; only four were hospitalized and none died from COVID.
Vaccination as a science has been around for decades. However, each of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are recent creations and though still going through much scientific rigor, were sped along and could not have mid- to long-term follow-ups. Beginning in the 1950s, Thalidomide was used to treat sickness in mothers during their pregnancies; however, the drug was found in the 1960s to cause birth defects in children born to a mother taking the drug (Mayo Clinic Staff, 2021). From the delayed awareness of the consequences of Thalidomide, new toxicity testing measures were implemented (Kim & Scialli, 2011). The process of vaccinations is based upon long-known research, and though there is likely no such consequences similar to Thalidomide, because of its creation date, COVID vaccinations cannot expressly show no such consequences yet. A point of concern is the effect the virus as well as vaccines have on women’s menstrual cycle, of which from multiple women complaining of more and lasting side effects than was expected, is being set for a fuller study (Brumfiel, 2021; NIH, 2021). Myocarditis and Pericarditis have been studied and though rates of infection were higher after vaccination than expected for the general population those afflicted were still around a thousand out of more than 100 million vaccinations, and there were no deaths (Bozkurt, Kamat, & Hotez, 2021; Diaz, et al, 2021).
*update 10/09/2021: more research has been done which shows an increased risk of developing myocarditis, especially after the second vaccination show, with both sexes and a wide age range affected, but mostly young males; some calculations have the rate of 1 in 3,000-6,000 instead of the 1 per million (Shay, 2021; Vogel & Couzin-Frankel, 2021).
Lockdowns:
Lockdowns have different practical factors for considerations: 1) how well do they achieve the limitation intended, and how to compare? – 2) what are the trade-offs? Proper comparisons are made with groups that are as similar as possible that have the variable(s) of interest differentiated between them. This can be with respect to time or place; one area before and after a change, or two or more groups with different implementations. Populations have differing levels of vulnerability, and environments are different as an entire state like South Dakota has a population across its hundreds of miles equal to 10 zip codes in New York City. We work with what we can, even though there are always confounding factors “… climate, population density, average age and incidence of comorbidities may confound results” (Mitteldorf & Setty, 2021)
Mitteldorf and Setty (2021) reviewed CDC data, and extended the window for study beyond the window of limitation in the original study. They compared California with Florida, and North Dakota with South Dakota, as the paired states shared similar climates and population densities while also differing in their responses with mask mandates and lockdowns. They found a similar growth of infection over time, regardless of the implementations of masks or lockdowns. Other studies looked at a larger window for review and across 24 countries, even up to 50 countries: lockdowns did not decrease mortality rates (Bjørnskov, 2020; Chaudhry et al, 2020). Examples of confounding factors include SD has a higher death rate than ND, but 44% of deaths in SD were an older, more vulnerable population (CDCa, 2021; Mercer 2021).
Averaged, a meta-analysis showed in reaction to lockdowns a generalized, relatively small increase in anxiety and depression, but with people generally being resilient to the effects (Prati & Mancini, 2020). However, individuals are not such a broadly-categorized average used to describe them. There are differences to take into consideration. A wealthy, dual-parent household that has healthy children will be affected differently by lockdowns than a single-parent of a child with pre-existing conditions. This difference was seen as being related to higher levels of distress and conduct problems with parents and children (Raw, et al, 2021). Lockdowns caused an increase of unemployment in the US, as well as across much of the world; with prior spikes of unemployment as a model, more than 7,000 additional suicides were predicted in the coming year (Bhatia, 2020). Overdose deaths increased from 35%-60% from the same time of year, contrasted to the year before the lockdowns (Friedman & Akre, 2021).
Other severe effects are not seen locally, or immediately. The World Bank (2020) estimated that because of COVID, there could be an additional 150 million people in extreme poverty by the end of 2021; not only is it expected that there will be millions more falling into extreme poverty, but many who had been prosperous will see their advances stagnate, with those in poorer and developing countries affected the most. In the US it is estimated that 20 million are not getting enough to eat, with those having children at double the rate of those without kids; 11 million are behind on their rent (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2021). Since March 1, 2020, the US national debt has increased 4.8 trillion, with more planned (Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 2021). Food insecurity is expected to affect multiple countries across the planet (The World Bank, 2021). Globally, governments added 19.5 trillion in debt in response to the COVID pandemic, of which “Ultimately, unprecedented borrowing by corporations and governments dramatically reduced the economic toll of the pandemic. Yet when the world does eventually come out the other side, it will be weighed down by larger debt burdens that could hobble growth over the longer term” (McCormick, Torres, Benhamou, & Pogkas, 2021).
More than presented:
COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 is a serious concern. At the same time, it is also an overblown concern. There are other variables to take into consideration on how much of a threat it can be to each individual. Estimates range from 5-80% of people could have been infected and not known it, either dismissing it because they did not feel anything outside of a common cold, or not showing symptoms yet or ever: pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic (Heneghan, Brassey, & Jefferson, 2021; Li et al, 2021; Nogrady, 2020). “Similarly, SARS-CoV-2 infections are overwhelmingly asymptomatic or mild” (Veldhoen & Simas, 2021). From being a newborn to 64 years-of-age, all those ages combined to be 21% of all COVID deaths, leaving the remaining 79% to be 65 years-old and older (CDCc, 2021; Elfein, 2021). The risk of death ranges from 0.0016% in children under 9 years-of-age and increased throughout age ranges up to 7.8% for those over 80 (Mahase, 2020). Under 14 years-of-age, and the rate of death is higher from influenza and pneumonia than COVID (Fox, 2021).
There are other variables aside from age as comorbidities increase the severity of disease from those infected, with pre-existing conditions making those vulnerable 6x more likely to be hospitalized, 12x more likely to die (Cascella, Rajnik, Aleem, Duleohn, & Di Napoli, 2021). With more than 540,000 hospitalized patients, 94.9% had at least 1 additional medical condition, with obesity being one of them while also being the main comorbid factor in death; there were other underlying conditions that affected hospitalization rates as well as death, including hypertension, diabetes, anxiety and fear disorders, various organ diseases, among other comorbidities (Cascella, Rajnik, Aleem, Duleohn, & Di Napoli, 2021; Kompaniyets, et al, 2021; Schmidt, et al., 2020). The United States has one of the highest obesity rates (12th highest) on the planet, and combining all the countries with higher rates, they total around 1% of the US population (World Population Review, 2021).
Additionally, we must be wary of inflated numbers. For example, as Ngozi Ezike said in a conference "If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death" (Melendez, 2020). Ezike refuted the notion that such counts may inflate the numbers, by doubling down on the methodology which remained unchanged while dismissing concerns “So we are at IDPH trying to remove those obvious cases where the COVID diagnosis was not the reason for the death. If there was a gunshot wound, if there was a motor vehicle accident, we know that that was not related to the COVID positive status” (NBC Chicago, 2020).
This mentality was mocked in an episode of South Park, a satirical show that blamed a police shooting of a child on COVID, for if it wasn’t for COVID affecting the school where the child was shot, the police wouldn’t have been there to shoot the child (South Park, 2021). Ngozi Ezike would dismiss the deaths caused by an external force, but would include medical conditions that were leading to death outside of and before of any COVID sickness. To inflate by adding the non-causal with the causal is disingenuous. CDC Director Robert Redfield admitted it was a tactic seen before and admitted COVID offers a potential again for hospitals to claim COVID as the cause of death as reimbursement for such deaths are higher than for non-COVID (C-SPAN, 2020). Admiral Brett P. Giroir of the Health and Human Services Department said similarly of vested interests misreporting for gain (Luetkemeyer, 2020). We have potentially weakly-correlational connections from Ezike, vested interests with reimbursements, and on top of that the interaction with comorbidities that may or may not have lead to serious health issues. For example, in California’s Alameda County, updating how they considered deaths from COVID reduced the number of fatalities by around 25% (Datta, 2021), and the state of Colorado reduced its COVID death numbers by around 25% after reconsidering who died from the disease (Ingold & Paul, 2020).
There is ignorance and evolving knowledge, and then there are manipulators. Manipulators do so for gain and they may have political power in real life. That ‘authority’ feeds the numbers and ideas to media. Along with other authorities that make claims that do not follow the science, such as Lewis Nelson, MD, professor and clinical chair of emergency medicine and chief of the Division of Medical Toxicology at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School in Newark "The best way to prevent the virus from mutating is to prevent hosts, people, from getting sick with it," he says. "That's why it's so important people should get immunized and wear masks" (McNamara, 2021).
He is not alone in either lazy or manipulative messaging, or as a victim of selective editing by a journalist. As shown above, Sauer stated ‘Vaccines are now authorized to prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2.’ Sauer writes for Johns Hopkins Medicine. Ngozi Ezike is the director of Indiana Department of Public Health. It is a gross scientific sin to speak known falsehoods from a position of recognized expertise. There are other parts where things are not just general errors as previously mentioned, but contextual in either knowledge of the time or a regional limitation. Previously stated, RNA viruses mutate quickly. However, SARS-CoV-2 changes more slowly than other RNA viruses (Ball, 2020; Vilar & Isom, 2020). Though it changes more slowly than other RNA viruses, there are parts and areas where it mutates differently or faster (Vilar & Isom, 2020). There are already new variants of interest and concern, and some tests don’t distinguish amongst them, only that it was SARS-CoV-2 (CDCe, 2021; Cascella, Rajnik, Aleem, Duleohn, & Di Napoli, 2021). Part of being something new, is that there are always new things to learn about it.
Zoonosis and reverse zoonosis: humans are not the only species affected by Coronaviruses. Research has been done showing animals – domestic, livestock, and wild – from mice, dogs, mink, gorillas, cats, and deer, having SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (Ghia, et al, 2021; Mallapatyb, 2021; Prince, et al, 2021). What is not known is how those infections affect within species, or outside of species, including humans. Many viruses do not cross species; some do, and SAR-CoV-2 is unknown, though there does seem to be transmissibility between mink and humans (Sharun, Tiwari, Natesan, & Dhama, 2021). “It is more than likely that coronaviruses will emerge again in the near future due to their ability to mutate, recombine and infect different hosts, as we have just observed for SARS-CoV-2…” (Romano, Ruggiero, Squeglia, Maga, & Berisio, 2020).
SARS-CoV-2 is most likely not going anywhere. When 100 immunologists were asked, almost 90% thought coronavirus would become endemic (Phillips, 2021). Endemic viruses are around for years, or more; they are a continuous potential in the environment. Through vaccinations and natural exposure, SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic and mild (Veldhoen & Simas, 2021); it is as contagious as chickenpox (Soucheray, 2021). There are two ways to develop resistance against a disease like COVID: natural (infected in the environment) or vaccine-induced (CDC, 2017). Both types of exposure have been shown to provide ways of making the body resistant (creates antibodies) to severe disease upon potential later re-infections, of which are influenced by the type of vaccine and the variant of the virus (Gazit, et al, 2021). Severe disease is still reduced in any version. Natural infection has been shown to have long-lasting effects (Bhandari, 2021).
SARS-CoV-2 is worldwide, and contrary to disingenuous or manipulative media, politicians, and scientists, is evolving and cannot be stopped by masks or vaccines. Evolving viruses can become more adaptable themselves to thrive, or can adapt themselves out of existence. What we currently have is a virus that is changing. Vaccines show while infectiousness reduction diminishes, they do not diminish in preventing severe sicknesses (Joseph, 2021).
Summary:
The primary and immediate dangerousness of COVID-19 is not so much the low risk to each individual; its risk is more in its contagiousness, with how often that low possibility may be met. There are 4.5 million deaths from an infected 217.1 million infected cases (BBC News, 2021). Even the most vulnerable have a survival rate of 92%; the younger and healthier individuals are, the less severe the disease affects one as mortality rates drop lower than 0.01%. This is not to say the young and healthy cannot have severe sickness and death, for the rate is low, but not 0%; contagiousness will make more test that risk. There are other concerns outside of death. It is estimated that around 5% of those who get COVID have to be hospitalized (CDCd, 2021). Of those hospitalized, the highest rate of death was 16.7% toward the beginning of the pandemic, with the rate down to 5.1% more recently (CDCb). More has been learned in how to treat those with severe symptoms. 1 in 10 have long-term symptoms after having COVID (Karolinska Institutet, 2021).
The recent surge of those getting hospitalized have been among the unvaccinated (Buchholz, 2021). The concern of COVID with the influx of COVID hospitalizations prompted an estimated 41% of people in the US from seeking medical care, with 12% avoiding urgent or emergency care (CDC, 2020). Many lament that the unvaccinated are taking up so much room and services, but medical staff have to prioritize already. If there was a bus accident with multiple severe injuries, they would get priority over someone with a sprained ankle; those who get distracted and fall from lacking focus still get treated even if it was their lack of focus helping contribute to their injury. There are concerns about vaccines that do not yet pass the threshold of acceptance for some. Obesity/diet and lack of exercise are not only COVID comorbidity factors, but general sickness factors. How many want to advance that those who do not follow a proper diet or get sufficient exercise should not get prompt care? Healthcare is regulated already with who can do what and where, and that leads to another review outside this article.
Old treatments for other sicknesses such as seen in a meta-analysis study of Ivermectin may be found to be effective at reducing COVID infectiousness and severity (Bryant, et al, 2021). Ivermectin has been a point of controversy regarding treating COVID, but the data should speak ‘for itself.’ We should not let ourselves be swayed by emotional preferences or other vested interests, just like with any other drug or procedure.
The dangerousness of COVID-19 is also in the responses to it; they may be even worse. These responses may worsen things both short- and long-term, not just to individuals but whole societies. From the lockdowns, there has been a significant increase in body weight in both adults and children; not only during the lockdowns but afterwards with one-third continuing to gain weight (Bhutani, van Dellen, & Cooper, 2021; Carbajal, 2021). Obesity is one of the key comorbidities in COVID severity and the main comorbidity in death from COVID. Then there are government acts of control. Much of these laws, programs, and rulings are based upon poor science, and are being used to justify taking parental rights away from a mother because of her vaccination status (Trainor, 2021), and arresting a man paddle boarding alone for violating social distancing and lockdown mandates (O’Rourke, 2020); lockdowns in their initial implementation and repeated enactment with stay-at-home orders try to strictly control general behavior, for example explicitly stating ‘Socialising isn’t a reasonable excuse to have visitors or leave home’ (NSW Government, 2021); police are arresting lockdown violators and protesters across the planet (Channelsweb, 2020; Express News Service, 2021; Kelly, 2021; Kongkea, 2021; Snyder, 2021; Talabong, 2020). In addition to the freedom of movement, there have been multiple infringements upon how people can even exchange concerns about the responses to COVID and vaccines (Armitage, 2021).
Paired with the lockdowns and the debt placed, there is a vast transfer of wealth as small businesses have lost customers or even had to close leaving the biggest businesses alone to prosper – government mandated. The unemployment rate rose more for the COVID lockdowns than from the Great Recession, with estimates putting the COVID unemployment rate nearer the Great Depression (Kochhar, 2020). Long-term unemployment (more than six months) has increased in the US (Bennett, 2021). With greater national debt burdens (McCormick, Torres, Benhamou, & Pogkas, 2021), there are fewer employed to produce goods and services, and reduce the debt, which affects poverty rates and economies at home and abroad. Production has decreased. Though food systems have shown to be rather resilient, there have been disruptions, and bottlenecks, and labor shortages which will affect availability later (OECD, 2020). Food prices are increasing (The World Bank, 2021). Outside of the philosophical and moral positions on much of what has been done, much of the practical acts have not been very effective or not effective at all in the short-term, and have set up long-term consequences of which we may not see until they are felt: more poverty, with less resources to get out of it. That is in addition to the presumptive-infectious status used to control people’s movement and speech.
Conclusion:
Some mask types are more effective in more controlled environments, but have reduced effectiveness in community settings. Cloth masks have decreased effectiveness with viruses, and even N95 masks can contribute to self-infection if treated and disposed improperly. Think that the average person in an everyday environment will follow the same procedures as a healthcare worker in a healthcare environment day in and day out, every day, for an indefinite amount of time? – now add kids. Vaccines help reduce transmission initially, but do not eliminate it and have diminishing transmission reduction effects; they are excellent at reducing disease severity. Combined with natural immunity and the extraordinarily low mortality rates for the young, an eventual endemic status is even more likely, turning COVID into something like the common cold. The ‘return to normal’ will be an adaptation to a new normal.
The bombastic calls for masks and vaccine passports to stop the spread of COVID are made either from the politically manipulative or the self-righteously ignorant – it can be both. Vaccine passports are placards stating that if one gets COVID it will be likely not be severe; vaccines do not stop transmission. Natural or vaccine-induced immunity strengthens one’s body against severe further infections. The unvaccinated pose no real threat other than imaginary. The flip side is being overly skeptical because governments or corporations advance concerns. Just because government or corporations advance concerns about something, does not mean there is not a real threat present. The topic of concern must be reviewed and not only by vested interests on either side. We can see how manipulators distort to their own ends.
With how infectious COVID is, the question is not so much if you will get infected but when. Individual risk of severe disease is low, and even lower for death; that risk is still there. There are the immediate risks of COVID itself, as well as less-immediate risks from how governments enact their various responses. How to weigh the risks? – 4.5 million dead, or 150 million facing extreme poverty? – how many will die from poverty in the future, and how long will it be extended? The consequences and potential dead are not so easily seen, but only estimates can be projected. If centrally and State-dictated, then it is a calculus done upon your life and livelihood without your consent or opinion considered. Forced upon citizenry across the planet: trillions more debt, increasing unemployment, and State mandates and surveillance. South Australia is piloting a quarantine app to ‘prove that people are staying home when required to, use facial scans and geo-location services, prove their location within 15 minutes or get a check from police’ (Garcia & McClaren, 2021). Not many advance not interfering with people’s ability to try and act accordingly to their best interests, even with the effects not differing much between mask/lockdown against no-mask/no-lockdown areas. Every act involves a trade-off and instead of each individual and business owner deciding for themselves, a mandate is placed by someone who does not feel the consequences of actions forced upon others.
More science is being done which will confirm, refute, or supplant previous research; that is the nature of science – a method of review and refinement, not a religious absolutism. What is known is enough to show that the bigger [mind] virus of self-righteous authoritarianism needs to be combatted even more than SARS-CoV-2. This authoritarianism need not be conspiratorially malicious, as it can be Hanlon’s Razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. The consequence is not too different though from one being malicious, adding trillions of forced debt along with numerous laws restricting movement and even speech. “Never allow a good crisis go to waste. It's an opportunity to do the things you once thought were impossible” is a famous quote by Rahm Emanuel regarding the opportunism to pass vast programs to the end of some political vested interest (Cannon, 2020). How far can one go and who can take it further than what was originally intended? A technological sword of Damocles forged and waiting for a new one to wield it will remain to treat a threat that will fade on its own.
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